Global Perspectives - Iran-US timeline leading to Jan 2020 clashes

Image: AFP

Image: AFP

September – December 2019 - According to the Independent High Commission for Human Rights in Iraq, hundreds of protestors were killed between September – December 2019 across Iraq, including over 20 protestors killed in targeted assassinations. A series of public protests gripped Iraq during the autumn and winter of 2019. Protestors were angry about government corruption, living standards and the favouring of pro-Iranian politicians for senior government positions. In November 2019, the Intercept intelligence report was leaked by the NYTimes. The report showed Iranian intelligence communications within Iraq between 2014 and 2015. The report highlighted several key Iraqi political leaders were either pro-Iran or spying for the Iranian government. Following the release of the Intercept report, Iraqi protestors became more critical of Iranian influence in Iraq’s affairs. Unidentified gunmen were spotted on rooftops in Baghdad, firing into crowds and killing protestors.

Image: ARC

Image: ARC

27 December 2019 - US civilian contractor, Nawres Hamid and four US service personnel were killed in katyusha rocket attacks on the K1 military base in Kirkuk. The barrage included 30 rockets. It is widely suspected that Iranian-backed Kata'ib Hezbollah shia militia were behind the attack.

Image; REUTERS

Image; REUTERS

01 January 2020US Embassy in Baghdad laid siege to by the Iranian-backed Shia militia umbrella organisation, the Popular Mobilisation Unit (PMU). Hundreds of militiamen stormed the embassy, breaking windows, lighting fires and occupying the reception area. The militiamen were unable to breach the main embassy building. US troops defending the embassy were stationed on rooftops and fired tear-gas into crowds. Armed US helicopters also flew above the embassy, to deter further violence. The day-long embassy siege was perceived to be a show of power by Iranian Qud’s Force leader, General Soleimani. Foreign policy experts noted that the General wished to demonstrate Iran’s growing regional influence.

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03 January 2020General Soleimani was killed by a US drone strike in Baghdad, whilst travelling in PMU vehicle convoy. Alongside General Soleimani, four members of the Popular Mobilisation Unit (PMU), including their commander, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis were killed. In order to avoid going to congress to permit military action, Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo claimed that PMU attacks putting US personnel and assets in danger were imminent.

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08 January 2020Iran launched retaliatory missile attacks on Al-Asad and Erbil airbases housing US troops. Only the US-occupied areas of both bases were attacked. USA satellites and NSA communications picked up on intelligence indicating that an Iranian retaliatory strike was imminent. Troops were moved to bunkers to take cover. Many troops had already been evacuated from the bases, since the Patriot anti-ballistic missile system guarding one of them was moved. The anti-ballistic missile system was moved to other areas within the Middle East deemed to be at a greater risk of attack. The attacks lasted for over two hours, no personnel were injured and although accommodation that had housed US troops was flattened.

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08 January 20200612hrs Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 (PS752) from Tehran to Kiev crashed into the ground three minutes after take-off, killing all 176 passengers on board. The passengers included 82 Iranians, 63 Canadians, 11 Ukrainians, 3 British citizens and others. Most passengers held both Iranian and foreign citizenship. Bulldozers were photographed levelling the crash site, before international investigators could investigate the evidence. Iran initially claimed that pilot error and an engine fire caused the plane to crash. Ukraine initially agreed with the Iranian speculation, before stating that they will wait for outcomes from an investigation. The Ukraine International Airlines Boeing 737 plane had passed inspection two days prior to flying and would have been able to safely land with an engine fire.

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09 January 2020 – Iran vehemently denied reports that the downing of the Ukrainian jet was caused by Iranian missiles. The Iranians called it ‘US propaganda’. Canada confirmed US intelligence reports that the jet was downed by Iranian surface-to-air missiles. Canada stated that it was likely that this was done ‘unintentionally’.

10 January 2020 - Ukrainian officials at the crash site stated that ‘it is not clear’ whether Iran want a full investigation due to the bulldozing of the evidence. “To date, we have not been presented with any evidence of the events that Iran initially put forward – about the technical issues for the incident.”

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10 January 2020 – Hassan Rouhani, President of Iran stated: “Armed Forces’ internal investigation has concluded that regrettably missiles fired due to human error caused the horrific crash.” In the Armed Forces’ report, it was stated that Iran was at the highest readiness for a US retaliatory attack and that the plane approached a military base with the flight path and altitude of a hostile plane. Flightradar24 data showed that the flight path was perfectly normal and had been taken by thousands of planes prior. Hours after the initial Armed Forces’ statement, an Iranian Air Defence Commander contradicted the initial statement. The Air Defence Commander stated that a Tor M-1 SAM battery Officer incorrectly fired at the jet, having thought the jet was a cruise missile.

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12 January 2020 - Amongst mourners and anti-government protestors in Tehran, angry about misinformation on the downed jet, UK ambassador to Iran, Rob Macaire was arrested and held for several hours.

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