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Behind The Story
Iran withdraws from nuclear agreement
The Iranian government has announced that it has suspended all adherence to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JPCOA) Nuclear Agreement. The move was made in response to the U.S. orchestrated assassination of Iranian military leader, General Soleimani.
The agreement between Iran, China, Russia, the EU (represented by France, Germany and the UK) and the United States called for a reduction in Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile in exchange for relief from stringent U.S., United Nations and European Union sanctions.
Since the Trump administration abandoned the ‘Nuclear Deal’ in 2018 and imposed heavy economic sanctions on the Iranian government, Iran has allowed its stockpile of low-enriched uranium to increase above the 300kg Nuclear Deal limit.
This increase in Iranian-held enriched uranium was confirmed by International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors in July 2019. Following Iran’s reactionary abandonment of the 2015 Nuclear Deal entirely, announced on 5 January 2020, the amount of enriched uranium the nation holds is set to increase further.
Once again the wheels have been set in motion for the nation to acquire weapons-grade uranium, a pre-requisite for a nuclear weapon.
The next step for Nuclear Deal signatories
Last year, Tehran increased its enriched uranium nuclear stockpile above the 2015 Nuclear Deal limit by a meagre and symbolic amount, to force the hands of the EU signatories to the Nuclear Deal to apply pressure on the U.S. to ease crippling sanctions. Now, by threatening to abandon the Nuclear Deal entirely, Tehran seeks to once again force the hands of EU Nuclear Deal signatories (France, Germany and the United Kingdom) to apply pressure on the US to step back from its current aggressive posture.
The EU signatories to the Nuclear Deal have the difficult challenge of extinguishing fiery U.S. rhetoric; an unenviable task with Donald Trump threatening to ‘disproportionately’ react to any Iranian retaliatory attack to the U.S. assassination of Iranian General Soleimani. At present, the U.S. administration, let alone foreign allies, are struggling to contain Donald Trump’s Twitter threats; his latest threat included targeting Iranian cultural sites (a war crime under the 1949 Geneva Convention).
The 2015 Nuclear Deal EU signatories released a joint statement on Sunday night "specifically call[ing] on Iran to refrain from further violent action or proliferation and urge Iran to reverse all measures inconsistent with the JCPOA" rather than focusing on Trump's posture.
The joint statement will frustrate the Iranian regime further, who see the Americans as chief instigators in escalating the recent tensions. Privately, the EU signatories will be doing all they can to de-escalate U.S. inflammatory rhetoric and actions, to avoid the risk of overt military conflict or a lengthy diplomatic spat if UK, French or German lives are lost in reprisals.
Nuclear Deal's formal dispute mechanism activated
Tehran's announcement to abandon its commitments to the 2015 JPCOA Nuclear Agreement will initiate the agreement's formal dispute mechanism, which could see EU & UN sanctions reinstated within 65 days. If these sanctions return, it will further cripple the beleaguered Iranian economy.
Over the past 12 months, inflation spiralled and the price of bread tripled briefly. Since the 2009 ‘Green Revolution’ there is has been growing unrest amongst the population, with regular protests and strikes reinforcing the rising anti-government sentiment.
Under the current economic malaise, many Iranians, particularly the young, are apathetic to the Iranian government’s meddling in regional affairs. There is an ever-growing vocal contingent who do not want an escalation of the conflict with the U.S. (either directly, or through proxies) and care more for the ever-increasing cost of living.